Why Android will gain HUGE tablet marketshare later this year

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Today I took a brief break from my family vacation to visit Vizio’s and Oakley’s headquarters down in Southern California with my friends Marc Ostrick and Sam Levin to get up to date on the latest 3D technologies from both companies. But while there Vizio pulled out their new Tablet and it shocked me what I thought of it (I’ve hated the Android tablets so far, when compared to iPad 2).

Mark Ostrick, of eGuiders, shot this video (you should follow his YouTube channel). Sam Levin does a cool gadget podcast for app freaks at AppMinute.

I finally had someone explain to me why Android will gain huge marketshare this year in the large-screen tablet wars (aka where iPad is dominant). It took USA’s #1 TV manufacturer, Vizio, to do it. Why didn’t Google have them on stage to show this off a few weeks back at Google IO?

Anyway, here it is: a $350 capable tablet is coming. Coming in July, they told me (and I believe them, they don’t want to piss off the retail chain in the United States because they are #1 in large screen TVs).

Why is this huge? Because it doesn’t compete with iPad. At least not head on.

“What is Scoble smoking,” you are probably asking yourself.

Well, see, people who will buy an iPad will buy an iPad and won’t buy anything else. Count me in that group. I don’t care if Larry Page gave me $10,000 I’m not switching off of an iPad. At least not this year.

But, there are a whole range of uses that don’t need an iPad, but need a good tablet.

For instance, let’s say you are outfitting a school with tablets and all you need is a good web browser at a very low cost? Vizio wins here. Apple doesn’t.

Or, say you are a restaurant and need to put a tablet at every table with a menu on it? Vizio wins here. Apple doesn’t.

Or, like we just saw at Oakley’s headquarters, let’s say you are building a custom retail experience where you can order custom sunglasses. Are you going to spend $500 on an iPad when a $350 one from Vizio will do? No way. Vizio wins. Apple doesn’t.

Get it? This is how Android will take over the marketshare battle in tablets. There are more of these uses than the ones people use iPads for. After all, how many schools need tablets? A whole lot. How many custom retail establishments need tablets? A whole lot. How many manufacturing machines need tablets built into them? A whole lot.

Thanks to this single tablet I can now see how Android is going to get the market share numbers it needs to get developers excited.

But don’t call it an iPad competitor, OK? At least not until there are a ton of great tablet-based apps, which there aren’t today.

Some more things I saw at Vizio today?

1. A look at latest 3DTVs (this is the same one they loaned me for my home studio to develop 3D content on and test out).
2. A look at new 21:9 aspect-ratio TV designed for movie buffs.

Anyway, just a brief break from my vacation, be back on Monday with more tech stuff.

Published by Robert Scoble

I help entrepreneurs build their technology business' story, help with getting ready for investors, with other launch plans, and many other strategic things that can help your new startup. Call to talk: +1-425-205-1921 (text first).

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229 thoughts on “Why Android will gain HUGE tablet marketshare later this year”

  1. Agreed Robert. This seems like it will appeal to a non-iPad audience. Smart marketing, like you’ve said restaurants, hospitals, maybe even corporate offices, might be interested in buying these in bulk if the price is right. Thanks for pointing this out. 

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    1. Its more of a scoble-post-apologising for why android tablets are currently failing to gain interesting traction:

      Lets see:: the general public aren’t buying it,  techies arn’t buying it, even android phone owners arn’t buying it. Android has google, manufacturers, distribution plus huge mindshare thanks to the success of the phone it even has ton’s of compatible apps.

      Perhaps its time to ask why ?

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      1. No apps, no sale. It’s as simple as that for me. I have Android tablets and they just don’t do as much as the iPad does (and they do it with less style). But, Android phones taught me there are a lot of consumers out there who care about nothing more than price.

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      2. Many would say Android has better apps, things like Google Voice, Voice Actions, Google Earth, true multi-tasking, true notifications, no restrictions in apps having to get approved first means more better apps get released sooner on Android. Especially in the US, Android isn’t much cheaper than iPhone at least not to the consumer. It’s much cheaper to the carrier, but not to the consumer. Yet consumers in the US buy 4 Android phones for every 1 iPhone at the moment. Think what will happen once Android is clearly cheaper for the consumer.

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      3. Charbax, Android does in fact have a few very good apps.  Some perhaps are even better than what’s available on iOS.  The problem is, for every app that matches this criteria on Android, there are easily 50 apps on iOS that cannot be matched by Android.  If we’re speaking about tablets, the balance is even more lopsided in favor of iOS.  As for the other advantages, it’s one thing to mention things like “true multitasking”, but in reality, I never see this followed up with true use cases.  There are design trade offs with every approach and Apple’s approach clearly leads to better battery life, yet maintains the important functionality though things like background “services”, push notifications, etc.  Speaking of notifications, we all know that advantage is gone in September with iOS 5.  Meanwhile, Android doesn’t even have a good implementation of copy and paste.

        Yes, apps get released sooner on Android including all of the apps that are actually malware.  Again, these “advantages” you speak of have very costly trade-offs.  While I admire your enthusiasm for Android, I don’t share the same perspective as you.  Android is an obvious generic clone of iOS.  WebOS does much better than Android in terms of understanding how to build a solid competitor to iOS.  Even Windows Phone 7 has plowed new ground with the tiles.  It’s not my “cup of tea”, but at least they try to take the UI in new directions.  Andorid’s success in the phone market has been driven through the higher carrier subsidies.  In many cases, they simply gave them away or buy 1 / get 1 free.  iOS never had to resort to that.  Either way, Android doesn’t get that same treatment.  When it has to compete on it’s own merits, it simply doesn’t do as well.

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      5. No apps, no sale. It’s as simple as that for me. I have Android tablets and they just don’t do as much as the iPad does (and they do it with less style). But, Android phones taught me there are a lot of consumers out there who care about nothing more than price.

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    2. Its more of a scoble-post-apologising for why android tablets are currently failing to gain interesting traction:

      Lets see:: the general public aren’t buying it,  techies arn’t buying it, even android phone owners arn’t buying it. Android has google, manufacturers, distribution plus huge mindshare thanks to the success of the phone it even has ton’s of compatible apps.

      Perhaps its time to ask why ?

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  2. Great points – just told a friend today “stop comparing tablets to iPads – the iPad is in the iPad market, tablets are a distinct market”

    Custom apps are huge, and android is great for them.  Should be an exciting next couple of years, I can’t wait for the variety!

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    1. You entirely missed his point about iPad vs tablets.  Anyway, If Android is so great for custom apps why are there so few?  In the meantime corproations are buying iPads by the thousands.  Android has  major problem that Scoble doesn’t get probably because he worked for Microsloth.  Malware, ease of hacking, and Googles ability to snoop on your device..  All Android devices and Google services are banned by the very well known global company I work for and I know that is true of many others.  They are insecure from hackers in general and insecure from Google themselves.  We don’t even allow our many vendors around the world to hold our information in any Google based product or Android device.  Google is never going to change this because its their business model.  

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      2. All that might be true, but explain to me one thing: why did Android phones take off? I’ve been asking people who own Android and one of the common reasons they give is that it’s $200 less than an iPhone.

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      3. All that might be true, but explain to me one thing: why did Android phones take off? I’ve been asking people who own Android and one of the common reasons they give is that it’s $200 less than an iPhone.

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      4. Be careful. In Switzerland (okay it’s a small country), u can get an iPhone 4 or an Android based phone for the same price (or almost). You just have to sign up for 24 months subscription.

        Here we don t buy phones, we pay monthly bills [subscription & call fees]. That’s it. We do not buy phones anymore and I’m sure we are not the only country like that.

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      5. “Why did Android phones take off?”

        You’re kidding, right? Apple introduces the iPhone and sales skyrocket. It’s a game changer. People flock to AT&T just to buy one.

        Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint panic, and try to find a iPhone competitor. Clunky Windows CE and Blackberry’s and Palms are not options. HTC, Motorola, and other hardware vendors panic. They all find Android. Now the 1st, 3rd, and 4rth largest carriers all begin selling Android phones in answer to the iPhone. What else can they do? Fold up their tents?

        Unfortunately, due to Apple’s agreement with AT&T, Apple gave Android three years to ramp up and get competitive. 

        Note that carrier lock-in and contracts prevent most people from moving freely back and forth in the phone market, which is NOT a problem with the iPod Touch, and NOT a problem with the iPad. Hence, people have an unfettered choice, and no Android device has touched either one in sales.

        As mentioned above, I also think you need to consider that Apple can and will produce more than one tablet, at multiple price points. They do it with desktops, notebooks, and iPods.

        They’ll do it here too.

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      6. In support of Idon’t Know’s comments, read this: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/13/android_market_still_insecure/.  Many will learn the hard way, but they will learn.  This ain’t no conspiracy theory, it’s the facts 😉

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    4. Your comment hit me like a ton of bricks. People are going to buy iPhones and iPads …because they WANT iPhones and iPads.  If they want price and/or variety, they’re going to want something with Android on it.  Just as in years past, if you wanted a Mac, you bought a Mac.  Period.  Thanx for the eye opener on Scoble’s eye-opener!  LOL!

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  3. It’ll be interesting to see which marketing methods will be utilized.  They’d be a natural for upper end service/customer gifts that are loaded with their branded app.  

    The iPad is an iPad and once people get them, they tend to be loyal, but it’s easy to see how the lower price point and the versatility of the androids will 

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  4. Spot on! Amazingly clear once pointed out, I wonder which manufacturers know this and which are blindly competing head on and therefore underperforming.

    I would add there is a market for iPad style tablets for Android phone loyalists. They are well behind Apple in the adoption curve, and suffering from the sudden switch from a few Froyo/Gingerbread tablets to Honeycomb Heaven/Hell. Too many new devices, with each successive release landing in too small a fishpond.

    The question for me is, will 1 or 2 manufacturers gain momentum ahead of the rumoured retina display iPad 3? To compete head on they will need their own next gen successors ready well before Christmas.

    And yes, those who want the iPad 3 will not be converted. That includes most purchasers of the iPad 1 who have not yet upgraded…

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  5. As a developer, why would I get excited about tablets that serve as menus in a restaurant?  About tablets that are interfaces to manufacturing machines?  About tablets in the hands of school children that don’t have credit cards?  Answer: I wouldn’t.  I don’t care about tablets, I care about users spending money.  

    Sorry, but a greater number of unit sales to non-app buying users is an irrelevant metric.  Might as well be adding up TV set sales.

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  6. The champagne corks will soon be popping all over the internet Apple-hater world! WINNING! WINNING! WINNING! WINNING! WINNING! WINNING! WINNING! WINNING! WINNING! 
    Why didn’t someone think of this before? Just make tons of junk tablets, put them in coca-cola machines, kiosks, and restaurants, and presto – WINNING! WINNING! WINNING! WINNING! 

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  7. and to think Microsoft is probably a year away. My God, how can Ballmer be still around? No Android tablet has really wowed except the Samsung but I’m not sold on Honeycomb’s UI quite yet. Looking forward to see what Ice Cream Sandwich can do.  

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    1. Its pretty amazing Microsfot belw it so badly but hey they missed the impact of the freakin internet as well until they were several years behind.  Their biggest problem is Ballmer and his Windows everywhere mantr even on devices that clearly should not be using Windows.  The Start Menu on a tablet?  Seriously?

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      1. Windows OS Pads were being sold to hospitals, labs, hotels and the like for $2000 a pop and upwards, can you imagine? At a time when they could have sewn up that market for aye and aye, greed got the better of OEM vendors like HP and Dell, no doubt influenced by the steep prices they were paying for the Windows software licenses on board.

        They had physical keyboards with crevices that could easily store dirt and bugs in a hospital, lab or hotel environment, and never considered touch keyboards. No-one ever thought to simplify the user interface either. The list of missed opportunities stretches to the horizon…

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    2. I still oulwd get Asus transformer over Samsung Tablet. I guess function over form for me. And I’m sure I’m not the only one

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    3. It’s telling that even Vizio is not sold on Honeycomb – but this may also have to do with Google not giving them the blessing yet.

      Sorry Robert, but if you think this Vizio device is going to sell to restaurants, you must have McD’s in mind. Why would any decent restaurant want to cheap out (for $150!) on a low end tablet? It’s about a lot more than price. As for schools, it is all about content, management and software. Vizio makes decent but lower end CE and they are way late to the game.

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  8. Ugh. The perfect angle for the impending market share loss for Applie in the tablet space.

    So, when do we bust out the classic “Apple doesn’t care about market share” spiel?

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    1. If you knew anything at all about Apple you would know that they want to be in the premium market segment not in the pennies on the dollar segment..  Its working well for them.  All the companies who make similar products that are chasing market share at the expense of quality, service, and customer satisfaction would love to have Apple’s financials.  Apple is quite happy to increase their market share but not at the expense of their premium product placement and reputation.  Otherwise they would be just another Dell or HP slapping Windows on the cheapest components they could find in China this month with no quality control or service.

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      1. $100 Android phones and tablets are here. No need for support, what are you talking about, the genius bar? Apple will loose not only market share, the so-called premium market will dissapear, nobody wants to pay triple the cost to sit in Business Class, everyone also rich people just wants to be transported from one place to the other.

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      2. So Why that ?
        Acer = – 30 % and flat Revenues
        Apple = +30 % (Macs) and %80 % Revenues…

        Same with iPods…cheaper MP3 player than iPods…
        Ipods= 40% of the market.
        Itunes= 70% of the market

        And now, iPAd= 80% of the market.

        You think really all the guy want to buy crap hardware in one of the worse crisis of all time ?
        I haven’t enough money to buy crap things.
        In crisis, you don’t buy or you buy quality…

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      3. “Acer has slashed its 2011 full-year tablet forecast by nearly 60 percent as it struggles to deal with missing its last three quarterly forecasts.

        The news is much worse than an earlier report , which stated that, along with other Android tablet OEMs, Acer would cut tablet production by 16 percent.”
        http://www.liquida.com/article/22854751/acer-android-tablet-honeycomb/

        Slashed THIS YEAR”S forecast by 60%. If $99 Android tablets are here, it’s only because manufacturers are desperately trying to get out from under all of the turkeys they produced…

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      4. Another report from MacFUDcentral.com?

        Here’s another report for you, in France, last November and December, the last two biggest gadget selling months, a small Android tablet company named Archos with 150 employees sold 25% of the tablets in France. More than Samsung, Dell and others. Not far behind Apple with 67% and their 50 thousand employees. http://armdevices.net/2011/02/08/france-archos-has-22-tablet-marketshare/

        That’s just one small Android tablet company literally stealing away all iPad sales. Just imagine for a second what happens once that small company gets more funds which they have now to produce more and deliver their Android tablets to more stores, but most importantly, just imagine what happens once all the 25 other Android tablet makers start taking market share as well.

        You are lucky if iPad still has 25% marketshare next year.

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      10. $100 Android phones and tablets are here. No need for support, what are you talking about, the genius bar? Apple will loose not only market share, the so-called premium market will dissapear, nobody wants to pay triple the cost to sit in Business Class, everyone also rich people just wants to be transported from one place to the other.

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  9. How many schools are using $300 eee PCs because they only need the web and want something cheap?  There is a reason schools don’t buy the cheapest hardware they can.  Go to your kids school and see the type of hardware they are using.  It isn’t the cheapest they can find.  The iPad also provides a wealth in apps and media (think iTunes U). 

    The kind of restaurant that can put a $350 menu on the table is the kind of restaurant that is going to put $500 iPad instead.  

    Android will not take over the marketshare battle by selling to a few retail shops or as machine interfaces.

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  10. Android tablets will sell the same way Android phones do.  On cost and two for one sales for people who find mediocre to be good enough or who simply can’t afford anything better.  Google doesn’t care.  They are in the the business of selling ads.  Apple is in the business of selling devices.  

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    1. 2-for-1 sales depend on signing people up for pricey contracts. Budget-conscious people getting a tablet will get wifi-only ones. For smartphones you NEED a contract, for tablets you don’t.

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  11. All true but Scoble doesn’t get it.  Low cost and low quality are generally not good long term solutions for any business or anyone.  Sure they will sell lots of these but the idea that corporations and businesses are going to grab them based simply on cost is silly.  There is a difference between the commodity TV market Vizio is on and the personal tablet market.  Big difference.

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    1. I see businesses buying a lot of Android phones lately. Your (and my) arguments that Apple stuff is better doesn’t matter to the bean counters.

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      1. True. And in a way this will pan out the same way the Mac vs PC war panned out.

        The only thing is that war, as we have come to realise, is not over yet. And after the “race to the bottom” is said and done, there will probably be a long period of stagnation and flat or negative growth for the OEMs (Android) in the years ahead after their peak, and guess what?

        Well, check out Mac sales quarter on quarter, year on year to find out…

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    2. I see businesses buying a lot of Android phones lately. Your (and my) arguments that Apple stuff is better doesn’t matter to the bean counters.

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  12. I disagree. You say:

    “For instance, let’s say you are outfitting a school with tablets and all you need is a good web browser at a very low cost? Vizio wins here. Apple doesn’t.”

    The iPad holds a major edge in education because you can guarantee that an app can work on all iPads. Same can’t be said of Android. Since you can only install App Store apps, the iPad is inherently more secure. Android even has a problem of malware on their own app store. Security patches and updates will also be a problem as well as hardware quality.

    A NYT story said that Android tablet makers are cutting down their production by 10% due to low sales and Asus slashed their year-end shipment target by 60%. That doesn’t sound like a boom is coming later this year.

    Unlike the phone wars Android is going to have to actually take marketshare away from Apple instead of getting it from RIM, Nokia and WM.

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      1. Because everybody needs a phone and outside of the Apple ecosystem, Android phones still work. A tablet (besides the fact you’re applying the results of a consumer marketplace to a commercial one — which may not correlate) depends on the quality of the ecosystem. There’s still an argument that no one needs a tablet. Apple has a proven system that overcomes that objection for many; Google has yet to do that.

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      2. 1. Many Android manufacturers vs one for iOS
        2. Aside from geeks, Android buyers fall mostly in the “i don’t give a shit, I’ll buy whatever is on sale” category. One reason perhaps as to why most of the downloaded apps from the Android crapp store are free.Buyers of iPhones go out of their way to get one. I haven’t seen any ‘get free’ deals.

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      3. True: when people want cheap, they want the absolute best deal because price IS the object. Thus the low end is created.
        When money is no object, only the very best will do; hence the high-end. And in-between, there is a sweet spot that Apple seems to have discovered giving them the best of both worlds and immense, staggering profits, especially with the iPad.

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      4. True: when people want cheap, they want the absolute best deal because price IS the object. Thus the low end is created.
        When money is no object, only the very best will do; hence the high-end. And in-between, there is a sweet spot that Apple seems to have discovered giving them the best of both worlds and immense, staggering profits, especially with the iPad.

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      5. True: when people want cheap, they want the absolute best deal because price IS the object. Thus the low end is created.
        When money is no object, only the very best will do; hence the high-end. And in-between, there is a sweet spot that Apple seems to have discovered giving them the best of both worlds and immense, staggering profits, especially with the iPad.

        Like

      6. True: when people want cheap, they want the absolute best deal because price IS the object. Thus the low end is created.
        When money is no object, only the very best will do; hence the high-end. And in-between, there is a sweet spot that Apple seems to have discovered giving them the best of both worlds and immense, staggering profits, especially with the iPad.

        Like

      7. True: when people want cheap, they want the absolute best deal because price IS the object. Thus the low end is created.
        When money is no object, only the very best will do; hence the high-end. And in-between, there is a sweet spot that Apple seems to have discovered giving them the best of both worlds and immense, staggering profits, especially with the iPad.

        Like

      8. True: when people want cheap, they want the absolute best deal because price IS the object. Thus the low end is created.
        When money is no object, only the very best will do; hence the high-end. And in-between, there is a sweet spot that Apple seems to have discovered giving them the best of both worlds and immense, staggering profits, especially with the iPad.

        Like

      9. True: when people want cheap, they want the absolute best deal because price IS the object. Thus the low end is created.
        When money is no object, only the very best will do; hence the high-end. And in-between, there is a sweet spot that Apple seems to have discovered giving them the best of both worlds and immense, staggering profits, especially with the iPad.

        Like

  14. “Non Apple products (including tablets) will always win on price.”

    Uh huh. That must be why everyone else is selling a full-sized 9″ iPad equivalent for less than $499… wait.

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  15. Ummm… at $499, the iPad is already the price leader for full sized 9″ tablets.

    What happens if, like the iPhone 4/3GS, Apple comes out with an iPad 3 and keeps the iPad 2 in the lineup for $399? Or even $349? Or — dare we say it — even $299?

    Who is going to buy a cheap Android tablet when you can get a cheap iPad instead?

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    1. American Airlines? Apaprently they are going to use a not so cheap Androind tablet in thier flights as entertainment system

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  16. Well pointed out I have to say. You will still find a lot of companies choosing the iPad so that their brand looks ‘hip’ or ‘cool’ however. Especially an up-market restaurant or a clothing store. Also it will depend on whether there are a bunch of Apple fanboys inside the company’s IT department which will push the case to finance for buying iPads rather than an Android device. The same fanboys probably work in the finance dept too! But it will be nice to see competition in the market, that’s for sure.

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  17. The only vendors who can compete with Apple right now on price (thanks to Apple’s long-term component contracts and economies of scale) are the rare few like Samsung who produce a lot of the subcomponents like screens and CPUs themselves.  The standard “throw a box of parts in a cheap package” vendors can’t even come close.  I don’t know why so many people miss this.

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      1. In the end the goal is to make money. I don’t really know how you can question a guy for pointing that obvious item out.

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      2. In the end this marticle is about how Androind will become more popular in the tablet world by grabbing a market share in the ‘cheaper devices’ field. This is not about who will make more money. True – Apple and Google shareholders and emplyees and board will be interested in who ends up making more money. So I’m not saying that is not relevant. Its just that this article discusses something different.

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      3. ‘….this article is about how Android will become more popular in the tablet world…..’ but in no way does it show ‘how’. I’m reminded of the embedded market for PCs where huge numbers of custom boxes shipped with Windows ~cash registers, hole-in-the-wall cash tills etc. The thing is – they were cheap and earned many times the investment. I just don’t see that being on offer with these low cost tablets, and they still have to be paid for at the end of the day. Neither do I want the price of a meal, ingredient quality or my kids education, to suffer by mass adoption of cheap, limited function tablets with not a hairless rat’s chance in hell of capturing quality-app developer’s mindshare for a non existent revenue roadmap.
        hmmmn… too much cafeine, but seriously?

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      4. Well that is your perspective. And certainly you have the option of going the IPAD route in relation to the tablet scenario being discussed here. But mass adoption is bound to happen with this model of OS licensing whrein every other company is going to create devices running Android. Many People look at specific functionality they need and the best value for money in there…

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    2. It’s not success until there are profits. And Apple will be taking more than half of those regardless what anyone’s else does.

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  20. But Robert, you are talking about cost and you should talk about TCO. The ‘$349’ Android tablet may well cost FAR more than a ‘$499’ iPad over the life of the device. That is what businesses and schools care about.

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  21. While you may be right in your premise, I have one counter example to your logic.  I am currently deploying a large number of ipads into a manufacturing environments. You suggest that any business that rolls out a large number, where they are just using a browser, would choose the cheaper alternative. However, this company and every other executive that I have spoken to about this, without fault, were more than willing to spend an extra 100 to 150 to get a higher quality build, a more mature product, a product with a better security reputation, and a product with a management tools story. You have to remember they are all used to buying commercial equipment and paying commercial prices.  The things that they are replacing are typically far more expensive than the bottom of the line ipad (again browser..so, they only need 16g wifi).  The cost, 99 times out of 100 in the commercial world is in the software. Companies are used to big price tags. They will be hard pressed to make a bet on a burgeoning technology(tablets) where they are likely paying (at least initially), an order of magnitude more per device for the software and then go cheap on the hardware.  Overtime, of course, this will shake out to a commodity.  Right now, though, risk management will still prevail.

    Then again, this doesn’t mean that vizio won’t sell a lot to consumers.  I just don’t think that businesses will make the difference you are thinking right now.

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  22. If non-Apple products will always win on price why has every other Android tablet until now been more expensive than the iPad?

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    1. I think it’s because they can’t get the same component prices that Apple enjoys because of the higher volumes Apple is purchasing.

      In addition to cost, I think the non-Apple vendors need to include enough margin to share with their retail channels, whereas Apple owns it’s main channels.

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      2. Exactly. The most compelling feature of the iPad is the price point at which the different ranges are pitched, very hard to match or undercut and make a profit at the same time.

        I was listening carefully to the searching questions Scoble was asking and the answers he got, and my feeling is that by the time the extra features this cool device requires are implemented, the price will start to creep upwards inevitably.

        Airplay, Video & Screen Mirroring, AirPrint, Medical apps and accessories, Hotel and Restaurant apps and accessories, Aviation apps and accessories, Educational apps and accessories, the list goes on…

        Not impossible, but a vertical cliff-face to scale, all told…

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  23. The article’s premise fails the minute anyone needs or wants to do anything that’s driven by teaching, familiarity, or development cost.

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  24. The same will happen with tablets as phones eventually. I think Android will take around 30% this year and over 50% end of next year .

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  26. Robert what are these other airplay like technolgies for android that you speak of. We are currently building mobile apps and this feature is on the top of the wish list.

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  28. Apples answer to cheap single use non 3G tablets?

    $299 iPod touch with larger screen.

    Price point competition DONE!

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      1. What fantasy land are you living in? With the pile of cash Apple is sitting on, they can switch to no profits and coast for several years.

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      2. Stock price collapse does not mean immediate bankruptcy. Sure Apple has enough cash to pay their employees for 4-5 years but instead they will fire most emplyees, most are in sales anyways they can keep their few engineers but it’ll cost them.

        Like

      4. Apple sells MacBooks at multiple price points. Apple sells iMacs at multiple price points. Apple sells iPhones at multiple price points. Apple sells iPods at multiple price points.

        And the stock price seems to be doing just fine.

        Given the above, I think Apple could sell multiple versions of the iPad at multiple price points, and do just fine.

        Like

      5. That has nothing to do with anything what you are saying. The fact is more than 60% of Apple’s current profits comes from the iphone. Regardless what iPhone. 60% comes from the iphone now. If iphone gets seriously threatened, which I think is OBVIOUS once $100 Not the ipad, not the ipod touch, not the macbook, the iphone. Apple is making 10x more profits today on the iPhone than they do on the Macbook. Android phones (unlocked! no contracts! prepaid plans!) are available everywhere. Apple will quickly loose market share OR they will have to drastically lower the price of the iPhone to keep market share. There was a rumor of an iPhone Mini something like that. If they do that, THEY WILL LOOSE MOST OF THEIR PROFIT MARGINS. To keep their profits with selling cheaper iphones with 200% less profit margins, they would have to sell 3x more iphones, not going to happen.

        Like

      6. This article is about tablets. Apple sold 25 million in the last 14 months. They’re forecasting sales of 8 million more in the just the next quarter. Average iPad price (based on sales breakdown) is $730. That’s $5.8 billion in additional revenue.

        This while Acer, Motorola, RIM, and others are CUTTING their tablet sales forecasts and CUTTING their production runs.

        Even if iPhone sales and profits dropped, Apple is explosively expanding into yet another new market.

        But they’re not dropping, are they? In fact, carriers are ALREADY giving away previous-generation Android phones FREE as loss leaders for their service. (And quite a few more at a token $50.) Despite carriers being forced to GIVE AWAY  Android phones to get customers, Apple’s numbers are still rising and, like tablets, they’re pretty much selling every single phone that they make.

        Even Nokia thought Android was a losing proposition for them, as Android phones (like PCs) are becoming little more than commodities.

        Apple doesn’t sell commodities.

        And know what? If Apple does do an iPhone mini, they’ll sell a ton of them AND every iPhone 5 they can make. Same thing happened with the iPod mini and nano. They simply expanded Apple’s market into the low end in ADDITION to the high end.

        Macs? Mac sales rose 28 percent year-over-year during Apple’s last quarter, while PC sales DECLINED 1 percent. Mac sales have outpaced the broader PC market for 5 years, 22 straight quarters.

        Mac sales are rising. iPhone sales are rising. iPad sales are rising. App Store sales are exploding.

        Other tablet manufacturers are cutting production runs. Other handset manufacturers are cutting production runs and discounting their hardware. Sales at other PC manufacturers are flat or declining. Netbook sales are now pretty much non-existent.

        Apple’s numbers are up. Way up. In a terrible economy they’re up.

        Like

      7. Do you understand the meaning of profit and profit margins? Iphone has currently 300% profit margin, costs less than $150 Apple sell over $600.

        You do know that when people sign a 2-year contract the price of the phone is not $199, $49, $0, or whatever. Smartphone makers are paid by the carrier. Carriers pay about $400 per Android and $600 per iphone, which is why carriers much prefer selling Android than iPhone. Basically carriers sell Android only by choice and they take only iphone when they have to.

        Like

  29. You are a bright guy, but I am not sold on this “Vizion” of the future.  My main reason is that Apple has sewn up the supply of touch screens and the price point you are hearing seems like a fantasy.  If it is REAL then it’s an outhouse compared to indoor plumbing.  Apple is rapidly creating a better experience (iP3) than the one everyone else is trying to catch up to (iP2).  If it is simply a cheap knockoff with fewer functions that is going to be all the rage, I’d be looking for lots of competition in that category because what you describe is not going to compete with the next generation of the iPad.

    Like

    1. Apple does not own the touch screen industry. The LCD business is 25 times bigger than Apple. Ipad is overpriced, you can find $100 capacitive Android tablets today http://armdevices.net/2011/04/16/125-cortex-a9-dual-core-7-capacitive-tablet-by-livall-cn/

      Apple is the one trying to catch up with Honeycomb, as Honeycomb is the only true Tablet oriented OS, everything else is just scaled up Smartphone UI.

      Like

      1. Such a touchy reaction.  Junk at $100 a tablet is still just junk if the software is an excuse to advertise something.  Hemidroids can’t seem to understand that there is a big difference between a few free apps and an interconnected suite of functional and high quality ones.  The average paid Android app has sold about 100 copies.  Oh wow, let me rush to develop for that ecosystem. The “free” & “phishy” stuff that passes for Droid software is one more symptom of the “cheap” mindset that fascinates folks who hate Apple without reservation.

        Like

      2. $100 Tablets can run Honeycomb, it’s only a question of Google’s prioritizations, I believe all the $100 Android tablets will get full Honeycomb soon cause they all got fast DSP and GPU so they can do the Hollographic UI and stuff.

        Froyo and Gingerbread is BETTER than iOS on iPad. It does not matter how much you want to talk about your iPad apps. more than 200 thousand apps work FINE on ALL Android tablets. Optimized apps are introduced with Honeycomb, and that is the only first true Tablet optimized UI and set of API for HD apps.

        Like

      3. Charbax – you may be right that there are many people who are happy with a second tier experience at a lower price. I’m waiting for your ad campaign – “Android – cheap and almost good enough”. The issue here is that companies like Motorola, Samsung and Vizio don’t agree with your characterization of Android. They have no alternative to Android and are trying to build on top of it’s lacklustre GUI to try to make up for deficiencies that Google/Rubin have failed to address.

        Scoble is right in that there is a low end market to plumb. But it is for bottom-feeders. Profits are much less but that can be partially offset by volume. I’m sure Apple will be happy to see that market compete with second hand iPads.

        Personally, I think life is too short to accept mediocrity.

        Like

      4. Moto, Sams, etc don’t customize Android because Android isn’t good enough, they do it because they feel they need to differentiate the look of the OS to make basic consumers hooked.

        Like

    2. Apple does not own the touch screen industry. The LCD business is 25 times bigger than Apple. Ipad is overpriced, you can find $100 capacitive Android tablets today http://armdevices.net/2011/04/16/125-cortex-a9-dual-core-7-capacitive-tablet-by-livall-cn/

      Apple is the one trying to catch up with Honeycomb, as Honeycomb is the only true Tablet oriented OS, everything else is just scaled up Smartphone UI.

      Like

    1. Heh. Look back over the past few months and I’ve been arguing that all that matters is apps. Those are also fun conversations to read back on.

      Like

      1. Agree that’s it’s apps. And that’s why Android will fail for some time. They have absolutely no experience in building robust applications. Their web efforts are half-baked experiments that don’t come anywhere near the sophistication level of say, GarageBand. The advantage goes to Apple for all those years in the PC space.

        Like

    2. Heh. Look back over the past few months and I’ve been arguing that all that matters is apps. Those are also fun conversations to read back on.

      Like

  33. I have a new 65-inch Vizio TV and I disagree. It’s a great TV for the price ($3,000). Yes, there are better ones out there, but they cost a LOT more! I guess you could argue that Toyota makes a crappy car when compared to BMW too.

    Like

    1. Android 1.6 SDK introduced support in all Android apps of medium density screens, which means over 95% of the 200’000 Android apps already scale perfectly to Android tablets, much better than iOS app scale on iPad.

      Like

      1. “already scale perfectly to Android tablets,”
        No. when your app isn’t based on tablet from start to the end, the result is mediocre or average (button size, space for work, etc….)

        Like

      2. All Android apps work PERFECTLY on my Android tablets, you just try again. Froyo on Android tablets is already better than iOS on iPad. Honeycomb is just bringing things way up high in front of anything you can experience on Apple.

        Like

    2. Android 1.6 SDK introduced support in all Android apps of medium density screens, which means over 95% of the 200’000 Android apps already scale perfectly to Android tablets, much better than iOS app scale on iPad.

      Like

    3. Good list, and amazingly none of the cutting edge medical, aviation, music creation and educational / disability apps that are still exclusive to the iOS platform even have a mention there.

      That’s impressive, it must be said…

      Like

  36. Where is the market for developers here? I agree that companies are used to spending more on PC’s and the iPad already looks like a bargain for many uses – especially considering the malware problems looming large. 

    Like

      1. What are you stating? 
        Compared to a PC + SW + Tech Support, etc, iPad is cheap & effective. TBD what value a Vizio tablet will be worth in a school setting: the cheap internet TV we stream Netflix over @ home is shoddy construction, bad sound system and minimal display gamut doesn’t inspire confidence… maybe that’s why the market has made a distinct ho-hum to the iPad almost-rans offered so far. The problem with the Android platform is not just malware an institution needs to be wary of, but shoddy hobbyware: why should I develop for Google if the Droidish think freebies make the world go around? The real problem is your Android Tab is locked out of the iOS ecosystem! That’s where the action is and will be for some time. Apple is x-fering billions of $$$ to developers and the price of this virus-free quality Apps is a buck or two: the public is responding. What are you really complaining about? 

        Like

      2. You are the one that’s joking.

        The iPad is cheaper to manufacture than a Netbook, they sell the iPad at average double the price of a netbook.

        Even though the iPad is disgustingly expensive for a tablet, it’s nothing in terms of profit margins compared to what Apple is making on the iPhone ($150 manufacturing cost vs $600 sale price).

        Android is the only serious app ecosystem, that’s where all the users are.

        Like

      3. Umm,
        – Developer income (2010):  $1.782 billion from iOS App Store vs $102 million from Android Marketplace according to IHS Screendigest.
        – Apple captured 82% of the revenue from all app stores in 2010 compared to 5% for Android

        And Android devs aren’t making up the differences with lots of free apps supported by advertising either:

        – 71% of all app downloads were to iOS devices in 2010 according to ABI Research, 5% to Android.
        – iOS users are each worth up to twice as much as Android users to advertisers according to Mobclix

        I think when you actually look at facts, you discover which platform really is the only serious app ecosystem.

        -Mart

        Like

      4. Your talk about malware on Android is laughable. Malware is impossible on Google Marketplace where 99.9% of app downloads happen. Also, malware is impossible on most other Android app stores, and also impossible in popular BitTorrents which also are great ways for consumers to pirate 5000 paid Android apps in few minutes, no jailbreaking required.

        Like

      5. Huh?

        A year ago the Android Marketplace hosted 50 apps masquerading as mobile banking apps each targeting a different institution that were in fact phishing malware.  Just in the last month 54 apps infected with botnet malware infected a quarter of a million Android users before Google finally took them down from the Marketplace. 
         
        Other examples include:
        – the Geinimi botnet app that is infecting numerous Android apps on Chinese app stores and spreading around the world.
        – Trojan-SMS.AndroidOS.FakePlayer.a, the Russian “Movie player” app that surreptitiously sent premium SMS texts from unsuspecting users
        – Mobile Spy and Mobile Stealth apps
        – SMS Message Spy Pro and SMS Message Spy Lite spyware apps
        – Brand new HTC Magic phones infected with the Mariposa botnet and Conficker and a Lineage password-stealing Trojan that attempt to infect Windows PCs when connected over USB.

        Like

      6. Bollocks. Nobody ever installed those apps until they are advertised about in those FUD articles. You Apple fanboys are just jealous of Androids openness. I’m sure most of that supposed FUD malware is actually planted on Android by anonymized Apple staff. Is there any website tracking the number of years submitted apps have had to wait for apple app store approval, any online count of the tens of thousands of legitimate apps that get rejected access to apple app store for no reason? Any stats on the number of apps rejected which Apple then later clone themselves disgustingly?

        Like

      8. With that reply I have to ask is that a user picture of you or your Dad? Seriously, if your posts are truly reflective of reality, why do you reply to factual replies with such tin-foil hat arguments? I think the Android ecosystem has a lot going for it but you are actually doing Android a disservice in your factually challenged responses. Google is trying to deal with the abuses as it knows that people will choose safe and closed over open and dangerous any day. It’s the once bitten argument.

        There is room for competition and the tablet marketplace is still in it’s infancy but suggesting that the state of Android is good enough to dominate the tablet market is worse that thinking Apple will forever enjoy their current msrketshare (profitshare is another matter).

        Like

      9. “Last week, it was revealed that 21 titles within the Android market [note] were malware designed to install additional malware and potentially steal personal information from a user’s handset. The applications were free knockoff versions of popular games and had been downloaded over 50,000 times.”

        http://www.intomobile.com/2011/03/07/google-remotely-removing-malware-infected-handsets/

        “Google said late on Saturday that it is taking a number of further actions to deal with a spate of malicious Android applications that were posted to both the official Android Market and other third-party Web sites.

        The so-called “Droid Dream” attacks took place earlier this week, prompting Google to quickly remove some 58 infected applications from its Android storefront. On Saturday, the company said it was taking several further steps to mitigate the damage.”

        http://allthingsd.com/20110305/google-plans-to-remotely-kill-rogue-apps-in-wake-of-android-attack/

        Impossible? I don’t think that word means what you think it means.

        Like

      10. That’s nothing compared to the hack attacks on iphone, all you needed was to visit a website to be hacked. Nothing compared to hardware deffect in iphone4 not working in your left hand. Nothing compared to the gigantic privacy issue still affecting most iOS users where all your movements are stored to an unencrypted file.

        Like

      11. Ah… so now we’ve gone from “Malware is impossible on Google Marketplace…” to “That’s nothing…” 

        Can’t even admit you’re wrong, can you? Faced with actual proof your “malware is impossible” statement was in error, you blindly lash out in three other directions. (And all equally misinformed.)

        Ah, well. As much as I do love tweaking the tail of a troll, I have real work to do. Good luck on getting your Droidboy merit badge…

        Like

      12. 0.001% of Android may have been affected for a few minutes by this malware FUD until those got automatically removed. Malware what anyways, I’m sure those don’t do nearly as much potential harm than the 80% of iOS users who still have everyone of their movements these past 3 years tracked in an unencrypted file on their phone/pc.

        Like

      15. “Also on June 5, Jiang told Google of finding apps infected with “DroidKungFu” on unauthorized Chinese app stores, then two days later followed with a report of “YZHCSMS,” a Trojan horse that racks up bills by sending hidden text messages to premium numbers.

        According to Jiang, YZHCSMS-infected apps were available on the Android Market for at least three months [MONTHS] before Google pulled them.”

        A few minutes (months), automatically (told Google), impossible… I guess there are a lot of words that don’t mean what you think they mean.

        Like

      16. You’ll probably find that 99% of the “users” “affected” are anonymised Apple staff or users in the army of Apple fanboys installing those malware on purpose to find any FUD they can find. These Android malware stories are FUD and nothing more.

        Like

      19. I met him over in Europe several times. He is a true-green Fandroid. Gotta love the fans on both sides of the fence! If they weren’t there this all would be boring.

        Like

      20. Perhaps Charbax is actually an Apple engineer planted by Steve Jobs to bring disrepute on Android. This theory is just as likely assume of the stuff he posts.

        Like

      21. Charbax is not being paid to troll then something is wrong. Who can spend this amount of time on a single comment thread. Plus who can get so many facts wrong then a paid troll like Charbax.  

        Like

      22. Since you are going to ignore Michael pointing out your utterly fraudulent claim of NO malware on Android, here’s a few nice juicy Android vulnerabilities for you to chew on (oh and yes, Apple patched that one iOS vulnerability):

        “A shocking number of high-risk security flaws in Google’s Android smartphone OS have recently been discovered by security firm Coverity.

        “We found 88 high-risk defects in Android,” it says in the firm’s 2010 Open Source Integrity Report. “25% of the Android defects discovered, including memory corruptions, memory illegal accesses, and resource leaks, are considered high-risk with significant potential to cause security vulnerabilities, data loss, or quality problems such as system crashes.” 

        The report is based upon the source code analysis of the Android kernel 2.6.32 (code named “Froyo”), and they have discovered 359 flaws in total.”

        -Mart

        Like

      23. More FUD from Apple sponsored company nobody eved heard of.

        Few iOS users install the 666mb iOS upgrade fixing that serious privacy bug even in the first year after its released.

        Malware removal through Google Marketplace is instant, 99.999% of Android users aren’t ever affected, and no firmware updates are required.

        Like

      24. 2 months and 250,000 malware downloads is your definition of instant?  
        Of course iOS users are famous for the vast majority being on the most recent version unlike so many Android users who can’t even if they wanted to as their carrier refuses to release the updates for their device.Man, Charbax, your responses are getting more and more shrill and amusing.  Please don’t have a heart attack on us.I guess I really should stop.  This troll has gone from semi-reasonable arguments to pure fantasy.  Shame, I always enjoy a good debate but not when based on fiction.-Mart

        Like

      25. Who counted those 250 thousand malware downloads in two months, macFUDunited.com?

        And where do you get your numbers regarding the number of iOS users who updated to the latest iOS update today? Apple probably makes those numbers open and official don’t they. NOPE, I guess you can have fun in your dream. Actually, iOS is more fragmented than Android is. Tons of iOS apps do not work on iPhone1, iphone2, even on iPhone 3GS there are incompatibilities. You dream on. An Android firmware update is not obligatory to fix security bugs and when its required its 80MB at the most. iOS rush updates to fix shameful privacy flaws require a 666MB download on crappy iTunes, no over the air updates, you really want to believe 99% of iOS users already voluntarily clicked and waited to download that 666MB iOS update? That number is probably less than 30% today who updated to latest iOS privacy fix firmware. Only the most “connected” Apple geeks click and install new iOS updates instantly. Another reason is iOS updates are slow, crappy, buggy. Have you got the stats on the number of iPhone bricks happened during those crappy iOS itunes upgrades?

        Like

  37. oh this is article is sloppy thinking.

    as many comment, the commercial and education markets it cites as ideal for Android tablet growth are very different from the general consumer market. yes, there is potential for large volume sales, but no, those sales do not incentivize app development for the consumer market. they need specialized trade/ed apps. 

    furthermore, such apps are being developed now for iPad, but those specialized developers won’t start working on ported Android versions until there is a demand. which won’t be there until businesses and schools buy Android tablets. but they won’t because there are no apps for them yet. it’s the old chicken and egg problem.

    and as some comment, the total cost to a business or school is much more than just the hardware price. IT support is a big number and the trade/ed apps are expensive too. so a hardware cost differential is not conclusive at all.

    finally, for the ed market the media-oriented 16:9 screen aspect of Android tablets really is a problem. the iPad’s 4:3 screen is much more adaptable to a wide variety of purposes, more like a conventional book of course.

    it gets very little discussion now, but i’ve wondered in general whether Google’s decision to go with a wide screen tablet format is a fundamental mistake. it is better for movies/video, and of course sometimes it doesn’t matter at all. but it is less flexible for just about everything else. Android tablets are not going to be used much at all in portrait mode. over the next year we’ll see if this makes a difference to consumers. i dunno.

    anyway, RS, next time you do a field visit, don’t drink their hype.

    Like

      1. ah you got me, i did not watch the video, just read the article. 

        but! so then i also learn Vizio is going to customize Android – not even using Honeycomb yet – with its own UI overlay. including apparently the 4:3 screen. 

        well obviously this would be a major new fragmentation of Android. which your breathless prose did not mention either.

        4:3 apps designed for Vizio’s version just will not look good at all on the standard 16:9 Android tabs, looking small and wasting 25% of screen.. and vice-versa ain’t great either.

        yes, dual apps can certainly be created that are optimized for each format – just like many iOS apps for iPhone and iPad now. but why would developers go through this trouble just for the Vizio offshoot? 

        the one advantage it would have is for porting the 4:3 iPad apps to it. but until Vizio sells a few million at least, no developer is going to go through that trouble for a single OEM.

        i don’t see the groundswelling here.

        Like

      2. Tons of Android tablet makers are doing 4:3 Android tablets as well, all Android apps since 1.6 scale in any direction automatically, without the developer even being contious about it, all the Android app UI since Android 1.6 are built to scale for 16:9 and 4:3 tablets of any screen resolution.

        Like

      3. it’s not that simple. good app design is much more than stretching a layout one way or the other and rearranging icons and buttons. and of course pure graphics have to be drawn for a given aspect. all those games. but like i said, iOS solved this problem so Android will too, eventually.

        i take your word, but i haven’t seen any 4:3 Android tabs reviewed. all the new ones from the major OEM’s – Xoom, Galaxy, et al – are 16:9 (or close). so that is what the new apps will be optimized for. what major OEM is going with Vizio?

        Like

      4. Check my website for about 50 Android tablet designs available using 4:3 screens: http://ARMdevices.net

        If you want to talk about “major OEM”, those are not really major in any other than historic sense, all their Honeycomb tablets are basically clones of each others Tegra2 designs, so don’t count on them. Most Android tablets sold today are not sold by the so-called major OEM.

        Talking about UI and app APIs optimized for tablets, Honeycomb is the first to take care of that. iPad just has an upscaled Smartphone OS.

        Like

      5. as to what OEM’s make/sell the most Android tabs, what facts can you cite? in first world markets, it is the big names that DO count – Tegra clones or not – and set the standard for what consumers there are looking for. they’ve been widescreen so far. rest of the world, i dunno. i do know Vizio is aiming at the first world market.

        your remark about iOS is just plain silly fanboy talk.

        Like

      6. Archos sells more TI tablets than most of the Tegra2 “big OEMS”. Freescale, VIA, Telechips, Rockchip based tablets are selling more than those “big OEM” that you want to talk about. The Android tablet market is bigger than what sites like Engadget Gizmodo may want to make you think.

        Like

      7. So. That would be fifty Android Tablets available… when? How many dropped off your list after that spring CES geyser of vapor Tablets shipping Real Soon Now? How many will be real by Christmas? 
        Have you seen the Droid screenshots, _before_ Schmidt saw an iPhone… they looked like a Windows-Blackberry mutant. Your opinions of iOS have become banal.

        Like

      8. Apple never invented anything. All Apple does is put money where there are market opportunities and then they profit on appearing to be “first to market” but they really aren’t. At every thing Apple did, they went out, looked for what other companies are doing that is interesting and where those companies just don’t seem to be able to make billions of dollars of pure profit on those opportunities, and instead of buying those companies or investing in them, Apple blatantly copies those ideas, steal those ideas and make consumers think Apple invents things, they don’t. I had a Motorola A920 in October 2003, 3.2″ touch screen, Symbian app store, it cost about $100 on a 6 month $20/month UMTS contract, unlimited VOIP calls included through SIP on UMTS, unlimited video chat included over UMTS, video streaming on-demand and live over UMTS. Yup all that in 2003. Apple invented nothing, they just saw a market opportunity. Other giants like Nokia/Motorola may have been completely moronic with how they invested their money and how they executed on those market opportunities, that changes nothing from the fact Apple just saw an opportunity, stole the ideas and made some profit.

        Like

  38. oh this is article is sloppy thinking.

    as many comment, the commercial and education markets it cites as ideal for Android tablet growth are very different from the general consumer market. yes, there is potential for large volume sales, but no, those sales do not incentivize app development for the consumer market. they need specialized trade/ed apps. 

    furthermore, such apps are being developed now for iPad, but those specialized developers won’t start working on ported Android versions until there is a demand. which won’t be there until businesses and schools buy Android tablets. but they won’t because there are no apps for them yet. it’s the old chicken and egg problem.

    and as some comment, the total cost to a business or school is much more than just the hardware price. IT support is a big number and the trade/ed apps are expensive too. so a hardware cost differential is not conclusive at all.

    finally, for the ed market the media-oriented 16:9 screen aspect of Android tablets really is a problem. the iPad’s 4:3 screen is much more adaptable to a wide variety of purposes, more like a conventional book of course.

    it gets very little discussion now, but i’ve wondered in general whether Google’s decision to go with a wide screen tablet format is a fundamental mistake. it is better for movies/video, and of course sometimes it doesn’t matter at all. but it is less flexible for just about everything else. Android tablets are not going to be used much at all in portrait mode. over the next year we’ll see if this makes a difference to consumers. i dunno.

    anyway, RS, next time you do a field visit, don’t drink their hype.

    Like

  39. Let’s say you’re right Robert – Don’t think you are though – What’s Google get out of all these tablets? Nothing as far as I can tell as none of these uses are going to allow advertising or tracking. They really won’t be android tablets, android will just be the underlying embedded OS. Not sure that would even count toward market share. 

    Like

      1. Through advertising yes – Anywhere else? Links please.

        If it’s just advertising, they won’t gain a thing from these uses.

        Like

      2. Through advertising yes – Anywhere else? Links please.

        If it’s just advertising, they won’t gain a thing from these uses.

        Like

      3. Google Wallet, Google could introduce $3/month global Google Marketplace subscription plans for apps, music, video, ebooks, enewspapers and everyone would overnight be making double the profit on Android over Apple.

        Like

      4. “Could” is the operative word — But, that has absolutely nothing to do with the uses in this post. So, even that wouldn’t get Google anything here.

        Like

      5. Android users need to register for a Google Account, that action alone brings $100 per user to Google. As users are more likely to use all Google products much more often also on the desktop, which in turn will display more ads and make people use more online shopping which also in turn brings much more money to Google.

        What’s your point anyways? Just cause Android is open source it should not be regarded as one big ecosystem?

        Like

      6. My point is – and you must not have read the use cases Robert used – you’re not going to find “anything” on these tablets that will make Google a dime. Do you really think that a tablet running a milling machine is going to have a Google account on it – No, it isn’t. Neither is a POS system running in a restaurant.
        These contribute almost nothing to the Google ecosystem and, like other embedded systems, are unknown to the user. Name a single embedded system – What system did the iPod use? What OSs do the various systems in your car use?

        Like

      7. I guess you don’t understand the benefit of big software ecosystems.

        Even when Android is used to power a POS, any other purpose built Tablet uses, even non tablet use, every $1 spent on improving those systems is used to increase the size and opportunities for everyone else working in that ecosystem. Every $1 invested in POS software on Android can potentially be used by any other in the Android industry.

        Here’s quoting Eric Schmidt:

        It’s a classic contest in high-tech. In that contest, you have a very well run, very focused, closed competitor who builds a great product that does something that is very usefull. That would be Apple. You have another competitor who makes all the technology available to everybody else, and using various creativity and various partnerships gets the benefit over everyone else’s creativity. Because there are more people involved in the open side of that, that side will eventually get more volume, have more investment, therefore have more creativity, more innovation, and ultimately the end user will choose the open one over the closed one.

        Which product will produce a lower cost product quicker? One manufacturer for a product or many manufacturers competing? The matter of fact is that we are just at the beginning of this fight. And the fight between two very well run, very large, very significant ecosystem companies, will ultimately produce great value for consumers because the fight between them will keep prices low, keep these systems honest and open and encourage the kinds of investments that people want to see. One of the greatest things about this contest is that people who win in this are the consumer.

        (…)

        There is pride in both approaches but they are completely different. In Apple’s case, they can continue to build beautiful and excellent products. The ecosystem that Google represents will continue and already has more volume, more users and will have more investment in the platform. Ultimately that will produce cheaper, better and faster products for everybody.

        Like

      8. You’re quoting someone who has been removed from power at Google.  All of this creativity and innovation that you speak of has left the larger Google ecosystem playing catch up.  Worse, Android 3 is very buggy and not even open (yet).  It seems more like you’ve bought into a concept rather than acknowledging reality.

        Like

      10. No, it is you who does not understand a big ecosystem. Apple has THE big ecosystem right now – paying big-big bucks to developers for very little money out of pocket for the consumer. Safe malware-free, high quality goods. Google has abdicated a monetary proposition for developers unless your hitched to their Ad-geared machinery. Apple and iOS is where the money and action is through this year and into the next. 

        Like

      2. Does it matter? Google just wants to be present in all kinds of devices that allows Internet connections. Mobile, tablet, laptopt, computer. Horizontal integration.

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  40. Let’s say you’re right Robert – Don’t think you are though – What’s Google get out of all these tablets? Nothing as far as I can tell as none of these uses are going to allow advertising or tracking. They really won’t be android tablets, android will just be the underlying embedded OS. Not sure that would even count toward market share. 

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      2. Nope.

        Rovio had sold 12 million copies of Angry Birds on iOS at a buck a pop making that $12 million dollars a month ago versus a reported $1 million per month in ad income since October.  (actually Angry birds sold for more than $1 originally so it’s an even larger figure).Peter Vesterbacka, an executive at Rovio Mobile, the developer of  “Angry Birds,” in December 2010 said that Apple will be the number one platform for developers for a long time, calling the Android ecosystem fragmented.Chillingo who distributed Angry Birds also has another game that you might have heard of – Cut the Rope – which has sold (that’s sold not viewed for free) $6 million worth of copies in just 3 months. -Mart

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      3. There you answered it yourself.. Rovio makes over $1 Million per month being free on Android and makes less than $1 per month on iOS.

        You Apple fanboys love taking numbers that date before the Nexus One for some reason, those 2009 numbers are the only numbers you can win your arguments with.

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  43. Archos has a 8″ capacitive 1.2Ghz (likely Honeycomb) Android tablet and it’s (likely) priced $149: http://armdevices.net/2011/02/25/arnova-8-149-8-android-tablet/

    Archos coolest tablets last year were released at 
     $249 for 7″ and $299 for 10.1″, all 1Ghz single-core, came with Froyo back then when they got released September 2010. In fact I believe Archos may be the worlds second biggest tablet maker after Apple. In many countries Archos sells more than Samsung, Asus and any other pretendor.

    Next week Archos is announcing their next tablets, this time 1.6Ghz dual-core, 60% more powerful than any other current tablets on the market, all the while likely keeping the price below $300.

    I do believe Android tablets will dominate the tablet market faster than Android dominated the Smartphone market since the Nexus One got released. Before the end of this year, Android tablets will sell more (per day) than iPad.

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      2. You are funny (un peut Lourd).

        How can you confidently believe 250 Android tablets this year aren’t going to completely crush iPad sales faster than last year when 250 Android phones completely crushed the iPhone.

        The truth is in the numbers, just look at Android sales and marketshare numbers, they are going up faster than Android smartphone sales went up after the Nexus One.

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      3. Because Apple isn’t going to Android tablets a three-year head start….

        Android Smartphones got ahead in the marketplace when the iPhone was tied to AT&T and Verizon and T-Mobile and Sprint needed something… ANYTHING else to sell in order to compete.

        They’re not making the same mistake with the tablet market. You might notice that Android has had the same three years to come up with a significant competitor to the iPod Touch, and failed.

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      4. Apple wanted the ATT exclusivity more fhan ATT. Less than 6 months after then end of the iphone exclusivity, ATT is making more money selling Android than iphone, ATT is selling more Android than Verizon is selling iphone.

        Android did’t have popular ipod touch and ipad competitors other than Archos simply because Google didn’t have the time to optimize Android for non-smartphones yet, they were too busy crushing the iphone.

        Just wait 6 months, Android tablet sales will crush the ipad and ipod touch.

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      5. Because 250 crappy devices doesn’t beat out 1 good one? Because the 50 odd iPad competitors to date have failed to take even one quarter of the market even when added together? Because the operating system for Android tablets is currently lacking? Because the return rate for Android tablets is several fold higher than iPad?

        You also seem to be redefining “crush”. Android has played a large role in Nokia’s implosion and in RIMs troubles. iPhones are still increasing in sales and share. Not as fast as Android but hardly being crushed. User satisfaction rates exceed any Android device.

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      6. Crush means Apple has not won 1% of market share in smartphones since the Nexus One was released. That’s the meaning of crush on a market. You may think a same or smaller slice of a larger cake does not mean Apple is crushed yet, but stealing another competitors growth, even in a growing market is the first step at actually taking Apple’s market share and rapidly forcing Apple to change their business model to keep any market share which rapidly can influence the profit margins and revenues.

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      7. Crush means Apple has not won 1% of market share in smartphones since the Nexus One was released. That’s the meaning of crush on a market. You may think a same or smaller slice of a larger cake does not mean Apple is crushed yet, but stealing another competitors growth, even in a growing market is the first step at actually taking Apple’s market share and rapidly forcing Apple to change their business model to keep any market share which rapidly can influence the profit margins and revenues.

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    2. Android isn’t dominating the smartphone market. They are statistically about even with iOS w/lots of two-fer deals pumping up public perception. They are not eating Apple’s lunch, they are eating Nokias! Check out http://www.asymco.com for some interesting slices of the smartphone market and where it’s growing and who’s losing. 

      Every developer I talk to and read about makes 1000x more on iOS than Android versions of identical SW. SO, does the Android market have to be 500-1000x as large as Apple before parity is reached? 

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      1. Obviously your developer friends making ifart and ibeer apps are going to make more money selling those useless apps on Apple. Apple is a place for people with disregard to their money and to the value of things.

        Android is completely crushing the iPhone. Android is selling at a rate above 4 Android smartphones sold worldwide now every day for every iPhone sold.

        The only thing Apple can do to try to sell more is to convince more carriers to carry the iphone and Apple is cutting the price on the iPhone.

        No you go check asymco. It’s a harbour for Apple share holders to stick to their fantasies about Apple share price staying unreasonably high forever, all based on the profits one company is making on one product that is so obviously being destroyed by better and cheaper competition, the iphone. The second biggest company in the world whos fortune is based on the revenues and profits from one single product, you asymco fanboys must be joking.

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      2. Nope Charbax, Apple still can’t keep up with demand for the iPhone or the iPad. The only way they can sell more is to keep making more which they do.  In Q1 2011, for the first time since Android began it’s break-neck growth, NPD reports that Android’s share of quarterly sales in the US smartphone market shrank quarter-to-quarter (by 6% in fact) to 50%.  

        In contrast Apple’s iPhone grew 47% to capture 28% of all smartphone sales in the USA.  

        IDC reports that Apple had the highest growth of any mobile phone vendor worldwide in Q1 2011 year over year of 115% with second place ZTE growing 45%, Samsung growing 9% and HTC and Moto not even on the chart.

        Apple’s iOS installed base still crushes Android and quarterly sales are about equivalent.  Apple has sold 200 million iOS devices versus only 100 million Android devices.

        With only 17 million iPhones shipped in its first two years on the market, the iPad being only just over a year old, with carrier contracts locking phone users in for 2 years and with iOS device shipments doubling each year, the vast majority of those 200 million iOS devices are still active.  

        This much larger active installed base is confirmed by ComScore who reported in April that active iOS devices outnumber Android devices by 59% in the USA and by 116% in Europe.

        With total iOS devices sales tracking quite close to Android devices for the last couple of quarters (32 million Android vs 33 million iOS devices (16 million iPhones, 10 million iPod touches, 7 million iPads) in Q4 2010 according to Canalys), iOS will be ahead of Android for quite some time to come.

        And of course if you’re talking shareholder value, there is no contest whatsoever with Apple capturing 51% of the profits in the ENTIRE cell phone market in 2010 (up from 49% in 2009), 71% of all app downloads and 82% of the app income versus 5% for Android.

        -Mart

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      3. Your number are bollocks and hand picked.

        Android smartphones sold just about as many in the last year alone than Apple sold iPhones over 3 years.

        You do not measure Apple profits compared to dumbphones and feature phones. Looking at the smartphone market alone, everyone is making about as many profits as their marketshare.

        But especially as Apple share price today is based mostly on iphone profits, that further emphasises the absolute obvious, that once iPhone profits are dramatically reduced through increased market competition, obvious market share losses coming for Apple unable to compete with $100 unlocked/prepaid Android phones, the Apple share price collapse is going to be even more devastating and rapid. Basically look at Apple share price increase since 2006, it’s going to go back down even faster than it went up. Destruction of so huge wealth among share holders is going to be much bigger story than it previous growth.

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      4. Ah, insults – the final resort of the fact-less.  We are talking tablets and platforms, not just the small smartphone segment.

        It is of course typical of Android boosters to put on blinkers when it comes to comparing platforms and try to ignore the big picture.

        The big picture is that iOS has a far larger installed base and quarterly sales are in the same neighbouhood.

        however, as 

        -Mart

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      5. Android is only officially supported on tablets since barely a couple months, you poor Apple fanboys need to let it take over the tablet market over the next few months. Xoom was the Nexus One of Android tablets, we’re only 3 months after that release. Within 6 months from now Android will so obviously sell more each day than the ipad and ipod touch.

        What you don’t like to realize is that most of Apples current profits comes from the iphone alone. More than 60% of Apple profits comes from the iphone.

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      7. YES! This guy has his life and his money invested in Droid.  He can’t accept the fact that real developers are making major bucks with Apple and hemidroids are losing their shirts.  Funny while the cheap and free adware piles up, the phish and horses creep in, the developers have so much time they can troll on Scoble’s links..

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  45. I took a leap on buying a Vizio back in December.  Yes, it was priced better than the alternatives, but it also performed better in every review I’ve read on it.  I’ve been very impressed with it.  That said, the tablet market isn’t just about hardware.  Scoble is delusional if he thinks price alone will be the deciding factor.  To date, it hasn’t been established that there is even a tablet market.   There is an iPad market and the iPad happens to be a tablet.  These one-off small businesses that may bite on the Vizio device solely based on price will be small in number.  The case for a non-iPad tablet selling well at this point is very small.  Android 3.1 just doesn’t measure up, not to mention the lack of tablet optimized apps.  Without the carriers subsidizing these Android devices, Apple’s biggest competition in terms of quality will come from HP, but it’s doubtful they’ll get the developer support needed to compete.

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  46. Nope, sorry, this is incorrect.  Used to be true, not anymore.  If you check in with the mainstream reviewers, you’ll find that Vizio can hold its own with other mainstream brands.

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  47. I agree with much of what Robert suggests.  I think there are a lot of ripe opportunities for lower-cost and perhaps lesser quality Android tablets.  But… value-priced tablets are only part of the equation.  Content (inlcuding apps) and ecosystem (including cloud lockers and single-point support) are just as critical to get right and it’s where Android is still struggling.  The Galaxy Tab 10.1 looks like an awesome alternative, but it’s up to the end-user to assemble their own ecosystem and good luck if you need support that may involve multiple vendors.  Ok for technical users but a big fail for the masses.

    Watch Amazon this fall.  They totally get this and are going to release a tablet + ecosystem this fall that will give birth to the first serious iPad competition.

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  48. How can it take you this long to realize that? You didn’t expect Android to be on anything? Or why is all the sudden the idea of $300 tablet revolutionary? You didn’t expect that to happen either? Android smartphones can start at $130 – unlocked. Obviously there will be $100-$200 Android tablets in the future, too. That’s one of Android’s biggest strengths. That it can be on a variety of devices for all price ranges. The only problem with the initial wave of Android tablets was that Motorola (and Verizon) decided to rip-off all the eager early adopters. But unfortunately for them, they didn’t fall for it.

    Amazon could take a lot of marketshare with their lower end Android tablet as well. But it should be under $300. Android will take the biggest market share in tablets, just like it did in smartphones. It’s inevitable.

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  49. No clue what this argument is really. For people who don’t need what an IPad is good for (good display, good battery life, light, instant on, touch sensitivity) why do they need an Android tablet? If we are talking about non tablet applications (machines, retail kiosks) why is this particular model by Vizio (battery life? Full length movie baby! Take that 10 hour+ iPad!!! We can play a whole movie! Unless there is multitasking, or syncing…) the point where it makes sense.

    I spent years creating touch screen kiosks. At the time it required expensive and pain in the ass screens. I don’t at all question the benefit of having touch screens at a lower price point with a customizable interface. I don’t actually know how to lock down an iPad to prevent people from escaping from an App so I can’t see using it for a standalone at all.

    But why this Vizio? I mean for a school webpad stereo speakers and whatnot aren’t important and there are other devices out there at under the 350 price point.

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  53. And yet cheap iPod competitors from all the big names like Microsoft, Dell, HP, Toshiba, Mitsubishi, Akai, Creative, Archos, SanDisk, etc have had absolutely no impact on Apple’s 80% share of the media player market for the last decade.

    Likewise, cheap iPod touch competitors have been completely impotent in the mini-tablet market for the last 4 years against the 60 million iPod touches sold.  

    Archos for example has been one of the biggest Android challengers to the iPod touch to date and despite fielding a wide range of 2.7″, 3.2″, 4.3″ mini media player tablets has still only managed 7.8% of this market in France – their home market – and they were worse elsewhere.  Similarly Samsung with their Galaxy Player 50 has been a non-starter.

    In markets unconstrained by the artificial barriers of carrier exclusives, BOGOF offers, costs hidden behind 2 year subsidies, incompatible cellular standards and family plans – cheap devices just don’t automatically win.

    Why do you think the tablet market will be more like the smartphone market rather than the mini-tablet and media player markets?

    -Mart

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  54. people don’t just buy Ipad’s because they are from Apple…. Well some do but for the most part people buy Apple products because they are the best. Second just because some new  tablet is going to be cheap does not mean it will gain HUGE marketshare. Sorry thats just not true. Look at all the other tablets out there and none of them are doing that great at all. the samsung tab….dead the zoom  is too much money for nothing,the playbook is made by blackberry enough said. 

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  56. I don’t see how this is going to change much in the tablet landscape. Great hardware doesn’t win. How many people are going to buy something just because it plays Angry Birds? And what about their low expectations for performance – they want it to be able to get through one full length movie. One! The way he was describing the sound as “stereophonic” sounds like he was grandpa talk’n about a “record player.”

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  57. Wow, it’s amazing to see the polarizing views.

    I love, love, love my Macbook Air. I love my Cinema Display. I have an iphone and an ipad. And I have one of these new Samsung Android tablets. The Android tablets will be very, very, very successful. No disrespect to Apple, but Android tablets are going to be huge.

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  58. The “dude, you’re smoking crack”-type responses from Apple people are funny. 

    Robert is very much an Apple, let’s say, appreciator. 

    God forbid he makes a somewhat reasonable case that Android tablets will pick up some substantial market share at some point. Oh, the humanity — he’s so high on crack. 

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  59. Wow, interesting to scroll through all of this. I am a MacBook Pro using average joe who uses a BB Bold and have been with AT&T for years. I am seriously looking at Android phones just because I want a new phone and don’t think I want to wait until the next iPhone is released–whenever that may be Sept or next Spring. I would love to see Apple get a little faster on their product releases. I think that is why a lot of people are switching to Android phones. We get tired of waiting and hate to buy a new iPhone 4 with the next generation–possibly just around the corner. Good for me to read about about the possible lack of apps and possible virus crap on the Androids. Had not considered that. 

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  60. Android i belive become one of the most progressive platform cuz with all theirs innovations it looks preaty good for development!

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  61. This is easy. Apple just need to release a cheaper version of iPad, for retail and business use. But I doubt they will do it.
    Are there any apps out there that shows the menu and allows food ordering as long as user step into the store? If so, this would counter those tablet sales that you mentioned.

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    1. Yes. Airplay lets you watch a video on your Tablet. If you then want to watch it on your big screen, you hit a button and push it to your big screen with an Apple TV attached. Every tablet should have that feature because it’s revolutionary. Android doesn’t yet have it, but Vizio is working on it.

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    2. Yes. Airplay lets you watch a video on your Tablet. If you then want to watch it on your big screen, you hit a button and push it to your big screen with an Apple TV attached. Every tablet should have that feature because it’s revolutionary. Android doesn’t yet have it, but Vizio is working on it.

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