Crowds predict accurately?

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I liked meeting Predictify a lot. They use crowds to predict things, and quite accurately too. Their interview is up on FastCompany.tv. Their site says “don’t just read the news, predict it.”

This is one of those interviews when I expected to really be bored through it yet they kept telling me stuff and showing me stuff that opened my eyes to a new way of interacting with people on blogs and sites. I predict you won’t be bored.

Published by Robert Scoble

I help entrepreneurs build their technology business' story, help with getting ready for investors, with other launch plans, and many other strategic things that can help your new startup. Call to talk: +1-425-205-1921 (text first).

Published

99 thoughts on “Crowds predict accurately?”

  1. Pingback: Predictify is about building track records of human predictors. | Midas Oracle .ORG

  2. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  3. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  4. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  5. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  6. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  7. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  8. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  9. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  10. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  11. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  12. Hey Scoble,
    Well that’s the good old (2006) Crowdsourcing 🙂
    I actually used betting odds to predict the Euro 2008 results and had (amount of goals included) a perfect score for the first four matches, although ‘the crowd’ screwed it up in Day 3. I still expect big results using this method.

    I wrote something on the economy as a ‘product valuation’ crowdsourcing project on http://glowrich.com/?q=node/2 . What do you think about that?

    Like

  35. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  36. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  37. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  38. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  39. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  40. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  41. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  42. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  43. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  44. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  45. So THIS is what Algore uses as the basis for the basis of his “Inconvenient Truth” campaign. It all makes sense now.

    And to think how much Las Vegas sportsbooks spend on setting odds, when all they need to do is use Pedictify.

    One thing’s for sure–no one will ever accuse you of being the next Mike Wallace.

    Like

  46. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  47. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  48. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  49. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  50. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  51. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  52. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  53. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  54. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  55. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  56. Well, there are certainly situations where the preponderance of a group can evaluate the evidence (and/or possess the necessary knowledge) to come to the same reasonable conclusions. That makes sense, and is the premise behind the “Ask the Audience” gimmick on “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” And, this story is just about as interesting…

    Like

  57. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  58. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  59. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  60. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  61. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  62. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  63. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  64. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  65. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  66. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  67. The pilots dead, can the (panicked) crowd fly the plane safety to terra firma?

    Can the crowd perform heart surgery?

    Crowds or “committees” don’t work very well in government do they? 🙂

    Like

  68. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  69. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  70. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  71. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  72. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  73. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  74. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  75. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  76. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  77. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  78. I’ve gotta admit, I checked out the site and its pretty interesting… though I’m just not sure it will “take off”… why predict? Is this entertainment? A bit hard to understand to the first time visit too, me thinks. But then again, I’m not so smart.

    Like

  90. If you want to get the cliff notes of the interview plus how it relates to Princess Bride you might try this link:

    http://timbauer.bauerfive.com/2008/06/15/mike-agnich-predictify-wisdom-in-the-crowd/

    I would agree Mike is adding a ton of value to the Wisdom of Crowds space … and suggests some new angles others might not be considering. On a separate blog the comment I liked best, from Mike, describing Predictify was this “A social network based on a reputation system”. Exactly.

    Like

  91. If you want to get the cliff notes of the interview plus how it relates to Princess Bride you might try this link:

    http://timbauer.bauerfive.com/2008/06/15/mike-agnich-predictify-wisdom-in-the-crowd/

    I would agree Mike is adding a ton of value to the Wisdom of Crowds space … and suggests some new angles others might not be considering. On a separate blog the comment I liked best, from Mike, describing Predictify was this “A social network based on a reputation system”. Exactly.

    Like

  92. If you want to get the cliff notes of the interview plus how it relates to Princess Bride you might try this link:

    http://timbauer.bauerfive.com/2008/06/15/mike-agnich-predictify-wisdom-in-the-crowd/

    I would agree Mike is adding a ton of value to the Wisdom of Crowds space … and suggests some new angles others might not be considering. On a separate blog the comment I liked best, from Mike, describing Predictify was this “A social network based on a reputation system”. Exactly.

    Like

  93. If you want to get the cliff notes of the interview plus how it relates to Princess Bride you might try this link:

    http://timbauer.bauerfive.com/2008/06/15/mike-agnich-predictify-wisdom-in-the-crowd/

    I would agree Mike is adding a ton of value to the Wisdom of Crowds space … and suggests some new angles others might not be considering. On a separate blog the comment I liked best, from Mike, describing Predictify was this “A social network based on a reputation system”. Exactly.

    Like

  94. If you want to get the cliff notes of the interview plus how it relates to Princess Bride you might try this link:

    http://timbauer.bauerfive.com/2008/06/15/mike-agnich-predictify-wisdom-in-the-crowd/

    I would agree Mike is adding a ton of value to the Wisdom of Crowds space … and suggests some new angles others might not be considering. On a separate blog the comment I liked best, from Mike, describing Predictify was this “A social network based on a reputation system”. Exactly.

    Like

  95. If you want to get the cliff notes of the interview plus how it relates to Princess Bride you might try this link:

    http://timbauer.bauerfive.com/2008/06/15/mike-agnich-predictify-wisdom-in-the-crowd/

    I would agree Mike is adding a ton of value to the Wisdom of Crowds space … and suggests some new angles others might not be considering. On a separate blog the comment I liked best, from Mike, describing Predictify was this “A social network based on a reputation system”. Exactly.

    Like

  96. If you want to get the cliff notes of the interview plus how it relates to Princess Bride you might try this link:

    http://timbauer.bauerfive.com/2008/06/15/mike-agnich-predictify-wisdom-in-the-crowd/

    I would agree Mike is adding a ton of value to the Wisdom of Crowds space … and suggests some new angles others might not be considering. On a separate blog the comment I liked best, from Mike, describing Predictify was this “A social network based on a reputation system”. Exactly.

    Like

  97. If you want to get the cliff notes of the interview plus how it relates to Princess Bride you might try this link:

    http://timbauer.bauerfive.com/2008/06/15/mike-agnich-predictify-wisdom-in-the-crowd/

    I would agree Mike is adding a ton of value to the Wisdom of Crowds space … and suggests some new angles others might not be considering. On a separate blog the comment I liked best, from Mike, describing Predictify was this “A social network based on a reputation system”. Exactly.

    Like

  98. If you want to get the cliff notes of the interview plus how it relates to Princess Bride you might try this link:

    http://timbauer.bauerfive.com/2008/06/15/mike-agnich-predictify-wisdom-in-the-crowd/

    I would agree Mike is adding a ton of value to the Wisdom of Crowds space … and suggests some new angles others might not be considering. On a separate blog the comment I liked best, from Mike, describing Predictify was this “A social network based on a reputation system”. Exactly.

    Like

  99. If you want to get the cliff notes of the interview plus how it relates to Princess Bride you might try this link:

    http://timbauer.bauerfive.com/2008/06/15/mike-agnich-predictify-wisdom-in-the-crowd/

    I would agree Mike is adding a ton of value to the Wisdom of Crowds space … and suggests some new angles others might not be considering. On a separate blog the comment I liked best, from Mike, describing Predictify was this “A social network based on a reputation system”. Exactly.

    Like

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